Oil & Gas – Jan-Mar’26 Earnings Preview – West Asia disruptions weigh on performance
Published on 08 Apr 2026
Q4FY26 performance is expected to remain subdued due to West Asia disruptions. While aggregate sales are likely to grow ~7.0% QoQ, EBITDA and PAT are expected to decline by ~10.5% and ~17.6% QoQ, respectively. Upstream companies are the biggest beneficiary of higher crude prices with +19.7% QoQ EBITDA growth. Standalone refiners are expected to benefit from stronger crack spreads and hence MRPL EBITDA is expected to rise by ~13.6% QoQ. In contrast, OMCs, CGDs, and gas utilities are expected to remain under pressure. OMC EBITDA/PAT are expected to decline ~33.4%/~43.1% QoQ, while CGD and gas utility EBITDA are expected to fall by ~13.0%/~19.0% QoQ. RIL’s standalone EBITDA is expected to decline ~5.0% QoQ due to higher freight costs, while RJIL and Retail are expected to grow ~3.3% & ~1.5% QoQ, respectively. Top Picks – We upgrade IGL and HPCL to buy from Accumulate. IGL is expected to offer better CNG volume growth prospect, while HPCL’s improving operational efficiency and completion of major projects remains a positive. Recent price correction also offers better entry opportunity. We maintain the rating for the remaining covered companies.
