Consumer – Jan-Mar’26 Earnings Preview – El Nino, Middle east war creates uncertainty
Published on 09 Apr 2026
We estimate our coverage universe to report Sales, EBIDTA, PAT growth of 14%/10.1% and 8.3% respectively on 66bps YoY EBIDTA margin contraction. QoQ demand improved steadily amidst domestic macro tailwinds as benefits of GST rate transition. Staples coverage universe will post a growth of 8.5%/6.1% YoY in sales/EBIDTA respectively. QSR will report an increase of 8.4% in sales and 8.5% in Post IND AS EBIDTA. Retail shows a 27.1% increase in sales and 27.9% growth in EBIDTA led by strong growth in Jewellery segment. Paints will show 7.3% increase in sales and 13% growth in EBIDTA on 91bps margin expansion. We have upgraded Metro brands to Accumulate from Hold as the footwear replacement cycle is likely to play out over the coming quarters, supporting demand recovery. Further, the recent stock correction has improved the risk–reward profile at current valuations. We estimate ~18.8%/15.5% EPS/Revenue CAGR over FY26–FY28 and arrive at TP of Rs1156 (Rs1181 earlier)
We rate Titan Company and Britannia as top picks in consumer universe. We are also constructive on Marico, Metro Brands and Pidilite.
