Metals & Mining – Jan-Mar’26 Earnings Preview – Steel cheers on China, AL on Middle East disruptions
Published on 09 Apr 2026
We expect our metals coverage universe to deliver a strong performance in Q4FY26, with revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 15%/23%/64% YoY (14%/25%/25% QoQ). Steel prices, which began firming up in mid-December on rising coking coal prices, continued to strengthen through the quarter. Safeguard extension, lower Chinese exports, stronger domestic infra demand and rising costs due to war related disruptions aided steel prices. We expect double digit volume growth for TATA & JINDALST, and mid-single digit for JSTL & SAIL, supported by resilient domestic demand and improved govt. spending. We also expect average NSR increase by ~8% QoQ, driven by higher HRC prices (restricted by contractual volumes, full impact will come in Q1FY27). Coking coal prices remained volatile during the quarter, while Odisha iron ore prices remained largely flat, providing some relief to spreads. As a result, spreads moved north of INR 27k/t towards the end of Mar’26, with average spreads for Q4 rising 24% QoQ to INR 22k/t. As a result, EBITDA/t for steel companies is expected to increase by ~INR 2.2k/t QoQ driving a robust earnings growth. Our top picks are TATA, JSTL and NMDC.
