India-US Trade Deal Nears Breakthrough as Goyal Signals ‘Fair, Balanced Pact’ Soon

Mumbai | November 19

India and the United States appear to be moving closer to a long-awaited bilateral trade agreement, with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal indicating that “good news” will be announced once both sides finalise a fair, equitable and balanced pact.

Speaking at the Indo-US Economic Summit hosted by the Indo-American Chamber of Commerce, Goyal said discussions with Washington were progressing steadily and emphasised that there was no pause or friction in the relationship.

“I don’t see any reason to be very worried. I don’t believe there is any hiatus in the relationship… When the deal becomes fair, equitable and balanced, you will hear good news,” he said.

India Insists on Protecting Farmers, Fishermen and Small Industry

Goyal reiterated that India’s stance in the negotiations is shaped by the need to safeguard key domestic constituencies, including farmers, fishermen, small industries and MSMEs.

He explained that trade diplomacy must reflect these priorities: “Negotiations are a process. India has to secure its interests, secure the interests of our stakeholders and businesses, and balance that with sensitivities related to farmers, fishermen and the small industry,” he said.

Goyal added that different elements of bilateral cooperation evolve at different speeds, but the partnership as a whole remains “very strategic, very enduring and ever growing.”

First Tranche of Agreement Close to Finalisation

On Monday, Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal confirmed that India and the US are close to concluding the first phase of the trade pact, centred on reciprocal tariffs and market access.

Agrawal said discussions were underway to close a package involving:

• The 50% tariff currently applied by the US on several Indian products
  (25% base tariff + 25% additional duty linked to Russian oil purchases)
• Improved access for US goods in India
• A two-stage agreement structure:

Phase 1: Tariff resolution

Phase 2: A broader, long-term pact requiring extended negotiations

“We should get a closure soon,” Agrawal said, noting that most elements of Phase 1 had already been negotiated virtually over recent months.

The bilateral trade agreement was formally proposed in February 2025 following instructions from the top leadership of both nations.

US President Donald Trump recently signalled that negotiations were progressing, stating:
“We’re making a deal with India, a much different deal than we had in the past.”

Goyal also highlighted the strategic depth of the India-US relationship, referencing a recently signed 10-year defence cooperation pact, which he said underscored the broader alignment between the two democracies.

He described occasional friction as normal: “Even in a family, there are sometimes disagreements. But the friendship is very strong.”

Goal: Lift Bilateral Trade to $500 Billion

The proposed agreement aims to raise India–US bilateral trade from the current $191 billion to $500 billion by 2030. Since March, India and the US have held six rounds of negotiations, with both sides aiming to accelerate closure of Phase 1.

According to Commerce Ministry data:

• India’s exports to the US in October 2025 stood at $6.31 billion, down from $6.9 billion in October 2024
• However, April–October 2025 exports rose to $52.12 billion, up 10.15% year-on-year
• October marked the first month-on-month export growth (+14.5%) since May

Officials said this rebound indicates resilient demand and strengthens India’s position in the negotiations.

India’s Economic Strength Gives Confidence in Talks

Goyal highlighted India’s broader economic transformation, stating that the country has moved from being counted among the “Fragile Five” a decade ago to being one of the world’s top five economies today.

He projected that India is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2027, supported by:

• A strong banking system
• Low inflation
• Controlled fiscal deficit
• Rising consumer sentiment
• GST-driven formalisation
• Large-scale infrastructure investment

He added that India’s financial markets have grown nearly 4.5× in the last 11 years and that over 2,000 US Global Capability Centres (GCCs) now operate in India, reflecting deepening economic integration.

“A Deal Any Day – But Only When It’s Fair”: Goyal

Goyal reiterated that India is prepared to sign the deal as soon as it meets the country’s core conditions. “It could happen tomorrow, next month or next year. But as a government, we are preparing for everything. We want a fair, equitable and balanced trade deal with the US,” he said.

With tariff negotiations reportedly near closure and political signalling positive on both sides, an announcement may be closer than at any time since talks began.

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