GE Vernova T&D India (GVTD IN) – Deep Dive – Statement win; significant T&D prospects ahead – Upgrade to ‘BUY’
Published on 23 Dec 2025
We revise our FY27/28E EPS estimates by +14%/+13% and upgrade our rating from ‘Accumulate’ to ‘Buy’, factoring in the award of the Khavda-South Olpad VSC HVDC project. We estimate this order to drive incremental EPS of ~Rs6.8 in FY27 and ~Rs7.8 in FY28. In our post-order win discussion with the management, they highlighted a robust ~Rs1.0trn+ HVDC pipeline expected to be awarded in India over the next 2-3 years. Beyond HVDC, base orders are also expected to grow at a healthy 10-15% YoY including STATCOMs which add a ~Rs40bn annual addressable opportunity over the medium term. Supported by a focused ~Rs10.6bn capex program and the global parent’s “Asia for Asia” strategy, which is driving higher localization and high-value export orders (~Rs25bn order expected in FY27), we expect a sustained execution ramp-up and improved operating leverage to result in EBITDA margin sustenance of over 20% in the medium term.
We value the stock at a PE of 65x Sep’27E (same as earlier) arriving at a TP of Rs4,005 (Rs3,531 earlier). Upgrade to ‘Buy’.
