Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals (MRPL IN) – Q4FY26 Result Update – EBITDA, PAT below estimate on weak Q4 – Downgrade to ‘SELL’
Published on 25 Apr 2026
Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals (MRPL) reported a weak Q4FY26 performance with EBITDA coming in below estimates at INR17.8bn, vs INR27.8bn in Q3FY26 (PLe: INR31.6bn, cons: INR33.2bn) driven by higher employee costs and other expenses which included a forex loss of INR6.1bn. PAT declined to INR1.2bn (PLe: INR16.7bn, cons est: INR19.2bn) vs INR14.5bn in Q3FY26 and INR3.6bn in Q4FY25. Throughput fell to 4.4mmt vs 4.7mmt in Q3FY26. MRPL met its target to open 250 retail outlets in FY26, reaching 252 outlets. As indicated in previous concall, MRPL plans to raise its marketing presence, targeting expansion of retail outlets to 1,000 over the next five years. We estimate a GRM of USD7.7/7.4/bbl for FY27/28E. The stock is currently trading at 7.8/7.7x FY27/28E EV/EBITDA. We downgrade the stock to ‘SELL’ from ‘ACCUMULATE’, with a revised target price of INR143 (earlier INR192), based on 6.0x FY28E EV/EBITDA. The downgrade reflects an increase in debt. We continue to assign an option value of INR22 for the chemicals foray, which remains a few years away from commercialization.
