Adani Energy Solutions (ADANIENS IN) – Q4FY26 Result Update – Strong EBITDA growth ahead; valuations turn full – Downgrade to ‘HOLD’
Published on 27 Apr 2026
ADANIENS reported a steady performance with Q4FY26/FY26 EBITDA (ex-SCA) growing ~13% YoY. And the growth trajectory is expected to materially accelerate over FY27–28E, with EBITDA estimated to rise by ~42% and ~24% YoY, respectively, driven by significant capitalization of ~INR 210bn in FY27E and ~INR 130bn in FY28E across transmission, distribution, and smart metering segments. The transmission business continues to provide strong visibility, with the order book increasing to INR 718bn in FY26 (vs. INR 599bn YoY) and management guiding for a robust opportunity pipeline of INR 0.8–1.0 trillion over the next 12 months, while the smart metering segment builds a longer-term growth runway supported by a sizeable untapped opportunity of ~90–100 million meters across states such as Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh. Despite this strong growth outlook, the recent stock price appreciation leaves valuations at ~17.5x FY28E EV/EBITDA, implying a meaningful premium to peers trading at 8–12x, thereby limiting near-term upside; accordingly, we change the stock to Hold (from Accumulate) with a revised SOTP-based target price of INR 1,452 (refer exhibit 4).
