5G, But Make It Fixed: Why TRAI Is Questioning Jio and Airtel’s AirFiber Subscriber Math

Mumbai | June 11 – 

India’s telecom regulator is asking a fundamental question:

If it looks like WiFi, acts like broadband, but travels through the air—should it count as a wired connection?

When is a wire not a wire?

That question has landed squarely at the feet of Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel, thanks to how both companies report subscribers to their 5G-based AirFiber services—high-speed internet for homes delivered wirelessly, but used like traditional broadband.

On May 27, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) issued formal communications to both telcos, asking them to clarify how they’re classifying these users: as wireline or wireless broadband subscribers.

What’s the issue?

On paper, AirFiber is plug-and-play broadband: a 5G-powered box that sits inside your home and connects to the nearest tower. No trenching, no physical wiring—just fast, fixed-in-place WiFi. Both Jio and Airtel position it as a substitute for traditional broadband.

But how should it be counted?

Jio, for instance, had previously reported these customers under its wireline subscriber base—a move that drew attention after a spike (and later dip) in numbers triggered regulatory scrutiny. TRAI now wants clarity: does AirFiber meet the technical and licensing criteria for a wireline service?

How TRAI sees it

TRAI’s stance is nuanced. It’s not just about where the device sits—but how the data travels. In telecom regulation, the transport layer matters:

• Fiber = wireline
• Wireless spectrum = wireless

Even if the user device is fixed at one location, if it connects wirelessly to a tower, it could still fall under the wireless category.

This classification matters because it impacts:

• India’s official broadband penetration metrics
• How telecoms are taxed and charged licence fees
• Revenue and growth narratives, especially in home broadband

What Jio and Airtel argue

Both companies maintain that because AirFiber devices are fixed in place, used at a specific address, and offer consistent broadband speeds, they should be classified as fixed or wireline broadband.

They point to global norms, including some from the ITU (International Telecommunication Union), where fixed wireless access (FWA) is considered a subset of fixed broadband due to its usage pattern—even if the delivery is over radio signals.

TRAI, however, seems to be applying a stricter lens, suggesting the medium of delivery must define the classification—not just usage.

Why Bharti Airtel should care?

While the regulatory fog continues, Airtel is already showing strength in its broadband business. Its home services division posted 21% YoY revenue growth in Q4FY25, with subscriber additions of 0.8 million. However, it’s worth noting that ARPU dipped 2.1% QoQ, a sign of competitive pricing or lower data usage per user.

At a broader level, Airtel’s Q4 showed strong fundamentals:

• ARPU steady at ₹245
• Net mobile subscriber addition: 5 million
• India mobile EBITDA margin: 59.2%
• Enterprise revenues muted, but home broadband and Africa segments offered support
• Consolidated PAT came in at ₹111.6 billion, aided by a tax write-back

From PL Capital’s perspective, we remain positive on Airtel’s India business, maintaining an ‘Accumulate’ rating with a target price of ₹1,988. As tariffs rise and 5G monetisation accelerates, the company is well-placed—even if the definition of “fixed broadband” is in flux.

What happens next?

A final ruling from TRAI could impact more than just subscriber tallies. It may:

• Trigger reclassification of existing users
• Alter levies and revenue calculations for FWA players
• Shape the strategic direction for new 5G broadband offerings

The bigger question? As more of India gets online through wireless means, should policy shift to focus on speed, consistency, and access—rather than how the signal arrives?

For now, telecoms are in wait-and-watch mode. But the way they count their connections may soon count for a lot more.