Consumer – Jul-Sep’25 Earnings Preview – GST transition impacts 2Q, 2H recovery likely
Published on 08 Oct 2025
We estimate our coverage universe to report Sales, EBIDTA, PAT growth of 7.4%/5.8% and 2.5% respectively on 29bps YoY EBIDTA margin contraction. Rural areas continue to grow ahead of urban areas on slow demand revival. Staples coverage universe will post a growth of 3.2%/0.4% in sales and EBIDTA. QSR will report a 13.8% increase in sales and 13.0% in Post IND AS EBIDTA. Retail shows a 14.7% increase in sales and 26.6% growth in EBIDTA.
We expect gradual demand recovery to set in as impact of softening food inflation, tax cuts and GST rationalization sets from 3Q26. We remain constructive on the consumer space and expect higher growth in coming quarters. We rate Britannia and ITC as top picks in staples; we have positive bias for HUL and Marico. We rate Titan Company as top pick in the consumer discretionary segment.
