Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) – Company Update – Domestic market share inching up – Accumulate
Published on 28 Nov 2025
HMCL’s 2W market share increased from 28.7% in H1CY25 to 29.5% in H2CY25 till date. The company saw ~1mn VAHAN registrations in Oct’25 with 31.6% market share (+370bps vs. festive period last year), and Nov’25 market share (data till 27th Nov’25) has further improved to 34.5%. We expect its market share to remain elevated around the current levels aided by improving rural demand and the ongoing marriage season translating to revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 9.5%/10.5%/9.9% over FY25-28E and retain ‘Accumulate’ rating with TP of Rs6,777 (previous Rs6,190). We raise target multiple for the core business to 21x (previously 20x) P/E Sep’27E and value its stake in Hero Fincorp at Rs66 and in Ather Energy at Rs324.
