Hero MotoCorp (HMCL IN) – Company Update – Near-term outlook remains positive – Accumulate
Published on 20 Feb 2026
HMCL has ample headroom for growth in scooters (including EVs), global markets, premium motorcycles and PAM business. The company is stepping up capacities and marketing campaigns led by the improvement in rural sentiments post good monsoon/ reservoir levels, festivities and wedding season in Q3FY26; sentiments are expected to remain positive in the upcoming months. However, some challenges might moderate the industry growth post H1FY27 and need to be monitored. We estimate volume/ realization CAGR of 5.7%/3.6% over FY25-28E translating into revenue/EBITDA/APAT CAGR of 9.5%/10.8%/10.1%. Retain ‘Accumulate’ rating with TP of Rs6,300 (previous Rs6,575). We value the core business at P/E of 20x (previous 21x) Sep’27E and its stake in Hero FinCorp at Rs50 and Ather Energy at Rs300.
