Life Insurance – Oct-Dec’25 Earnings Preview – Uptick in growth; loss of ITC credit to drag margin
Published on 05 Jan 2026
Private life insurers are seeing a pick-up in Oct/ Nov-25 volumes (+21% YoY) with GST exemption kicking in. We expect the boost in retail protection volume to provide a strong tailwind for growth in Q3. Expect 3QFY26E VNB margin to be subdued due to the loss of Input Tax Credit. Valuations continue to remain undemanding. Maintain BUY on Max FS (TP of Rs 1,925 at 2.1x FY27E P/EV) and HDFC Life (TP of Rs 900 at 2.6x FY27E P/EV). Key monitorable from 3QFY26E results are: (1) Growth guidance for Q4FY26/ FY27E (2) Margin outlook and impact of GST exemption.
