Logistics – Jan-Mar’26 Earnings Preview – All trucks in fast lane
Published on 08 Apr 2026
For our coverage universe, we expect revenue growth of 19.1% YoY in 4QFY26E. B2C parcel volumes for DELHIVER IN typically witness a sequential dip in 4Q after having peaked in 3Q due to festivities. However, we expect DELHIVER IN to buck this trend and report B2C parcel volumes of 293mn (flat sequentially) in 4QFY26E. MAHLOG IN is also expected to report steady performance as M&M’s auto volumes (excluding exports) are up 25.8% YoY in 4QFY26E. As for TCIEXP IN, the growth momentum evident in previous quarter is likely to continue and volumes are expected to increase by 4.7% YoY. On the operating profitability front, EBITDA of our coverage universe is likely to increase by 40.1% YoY led by 1) B2C parcel volume kicker for DELHIVER IN 2) narrowing losses in the B2B express division for MAHLOG IN and 3) rising operating leverage benefits arising from volume growth for TCIEXP IN. MAHLOG IN is our top pick in logistics space and we retain BUY on the stock with a TP of Rs406 (23x FY28E EPS) amid anticipated turn-around in the B2B express business.
