National Aluminium Co. (NACL IN) – Q3FY26 Result Update – Strong show; higher LME to support earnings – HOLD
Published on 01 Feb 2026
NACL’s captive coal mines are expected to meet ~57% of its coal requirement and keep the cost structure lean. NACL continues to benefit from higher LME aluminum prices, but limited volume growth anticipated in the medium term led by weak execution restricts us from assigning higher multiples. Alumina pricing is expected to remain muted (unless any disruptions) due to upcoming global capacities, while ally prices are expected to remain stable aided by Chinese production cap and stable demand. We raise FY27/28E EBITDA by 6%/4%, assuming higher LME prices of USD3,001/2,932 (earlier USD2,918/2,851). Every USD100 increase in ally prices would lead to ~6% upgrade in our NACL EBITDA. Maintain ‘HOLD’ with revised TP of Rs356 (from Rs337, assigning same 5x EV/EBITDA multiple). At CMP, the stock is trading at 6x/5.3x EV of FY27/28E EBITDA.
