Oil & Gas – Jul-Sep’25 Earnings Preview – Muted quarter largely
Published on 03 Oct 2025
Driven by stronger diesel cracks, refining margins are expected to be strong sequentially. However, rise in Brent along with weakening rupee would pressurize marketing margins for the OMCs. We expect aggregate standalone EBITDA of the OMCs at Rs242bn, 19% decline QoQ but more than double YoY. Upstream companies ONGC and Oil India are expected to report flat to marginal decline in their production QoQ, with EBITDA of Rs199bn, -2.8% QoQ and -2.6% YoY. RIL is expected to report 2.4% QoQ rise in its conso EBITDA, led primarily by better refining margins in its standalone segment. Overall, the sector is expected to witness 3.4% QoQ rise in revenues led by oil prices as well as weakening rupee. We expect aggregate EBITDA to decline by 3.5% QoQ to Rs959bn. Aggregate PAT is expected to register 18% QoQ decline.
