Pharma – Jan-Mar’26 Earnings Preview – Domestic formulations to help mitigate US decline YoY
Published on 09 Apr 2026
Pharmaceutical companies under our coverage are expected to see muted EBITDA growth of ~1% YoY (down ~9% QoQ) in Q4FY26. The primary drag continues to be the elevated base in the US business. However, ex gRevlimid, the core US portfolio should still post growth, suggesting that the underlying base business remains stable. From a profitability standpoint, tailwinds from currency movements will be partly offset by higher freight cost toward the end of quarter, given the Middle East conflict. The relatively benign raw material prices will continue to aid GMs in Q4. The domestic formulations business is expected to remain on a healthier side on the back of improving acute demand and continued traction in chronic therapies. Further, Q4 witnessed the launch of generic semaglutide, providing tailwind in Mar’26, and is set to accelerate growth in FY27E. Our top picks are: SUNP, AJP, IPCA and ANTHEM.
