Ports – Jan-Mar’26 Earnings Preview – War disruptions to impact FY27 volumes

We expect our Ports coverage universe to report Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 13%/13%/9% YoY (0%/-1%/17% QoQ) in Q4FY26, supported by seasonally strong volumes and resilient realizations, despite near-term disruptions due to ongoing West Asia crisis. ADSEZ is expected to continue outperforming, driven by robust container volumes and incremental transshipment opportunities across Mundra, Vizhinjam and CWIT post closure of Strait of Hormuz, aiding volumes. In contrast, JSWINFRA’s performance is likely to remain muted partly impacted by disruption at the Fujairah Liquid Terminal and shutdown at Vijayanagar steel plant, although recovery in Paradip volumes and strong rail logistics traction should provide partial offset. Ongoing global supply chain disruption is likely to impact trade flows leading to curtailment in cargo volumes. While Q4 is still not much impacted, any prolongation of war and resultant inflation can impact global economic growth and impact container volumes. Planned capacity additions at ports are on track for both companies. We moderate our FY27 volume assumptions by ~4% for both companies and curtail valuation multiples by 10% but remain constructive on the space from long term perspective. Structural drivers such as rising containerization, continued scale-up in port-linked logistics, and strong capacity expansion pipeline across key assets still remain. Top Pick: ADSEZ, JSWINFRA.