Ultratech Cement (UTCEM IN) – Company Update – Superior execution to lead to strong volumes – Upgrade to ‘BUY’
Published on 19 Dec 2025
We upgrade Ultratech Cement (UTCEM) to ‘BUY’ as we expect cement pricing to improve from Jan’26 led by strengthening demand and impending pressure on industry margins due to current weak prices & elevated pet coke prices. We expect UTCEM volumes to clock ~12% CAGR over FY25-28E on the back of superior execution and ramp up of recent inorganic expansion. We have tweaked our estimates by -6%/-1%/+4% for FY26/27/28E on near-term weak cement pricing while maintaining volume assumptions. We expect EBITDA to deliver strong 24% CAGR over FY25-28E. The stock is trading at EV of 16.4x/14.1x FY27E/28E EBITDA. We upgrade the stock to ‘BUY’ from ‘Accumulate’ with revised TP of Rs13,625 (Rs13,425 earlier) valuing at 18x EV of Sep’27E EBITDA.
