Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA IN) – Analyst Meet Update – Waiting for price uptick across key regions – Accumulate
Published on 19 Dec 2025
We attended the analyst day of Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA). The management highlighted demand weakness in key eastern states, while positive trends are seen across rest of the regions with a seasonally strong period rolling in. We believe DALBHARA, in the near term, remains a price play on the eastern (having 60% of capacities, incl. North-East) and southern (34%) regions as intense competition from leaders continues to limit market share expansion. DALBHARA faces the risk of missing its medium-term capacity target due to issues in the JPA deal. However, we expect it to re-focus on organic expansion as it has enough capacity to cater to any surge in near-term demand. We cut our EBITDA estimates by 6%/5%/2% for FY26/27/28E and expect EBITDA CAGR of ~21% over FY25-28E. At CMP, the stock is trading at 10.6x/9.3x EV of FY27/FY28E EBITDA. Maintain ‘Accumulate’ with revised TP of Rs2,263 (earlier Rs2,372) valuing at 11x EV of Sep’27E EBITDA.
