JSW Steel (JSTL IN) – Q3FY26 Result Update – Pricing uptick; aggressive expansion to continue – Upgrade to ‘Accumulate’
Published on 25 Jan 2026
India’s steel requirement is expected to grow by 12-14mtpa over the next few years aided by strong domestic demand, while prices will be supported by the extension of SGD until Apr’28. JSTL’s balance sheet is expected to deleverage significantly, providing room for further aggressive expansion. Key risks to our thesis: a) Ability to raise steel prices further on recent sharp surge in coking coal without inviting imports, b) India’s infra push, c) ramp up in FY27 ex-BPSL, and d) delay in JFE deal and ongoing acquisition of coal mines. We incorporate BPSL-JFE deal, higher coking coal and cut our FY27/28E EBITDA by 11%/4% respectively and expect 16% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-28E. At CMP, the stock is trading at 9.8x/7.7x EV of FY27/28E EBITDA. Accumulate.
