Aster DM Healthcare (ASTERDM IN) – Q3FY26 Result Update – EBITDA miss; QCIL growth has been impressive – BUY
Published on 03 Feb 2026
ASTER DM Healthcare’s (ASTERDM) Q3 consolidated EBITDA grew 10% YoY to Rs2.14bn, 7% below our estimate; impacted by lower growth in Karnataka cluster. On other hand growth for QCIL has been impressive with 32% YoY growth for Q3 and 25% YoY for 9MFY26, much ahead of our estimate. ASTERDM’s board has recently approved merger with Quality Care (QCIL), making it the third largest healthcare chain by revenue and bed capacity in India. We remain positive on ATSERDM given the rising visibility on post-merger synergies, occupancy improvement, margin expansion and upcoming bed additions. Our FY27-28E EBITDA for combined entity stands cut by 6-7%. We estimate combined entity post Ind As EBITDA to grow at 22%+ CAGR over FY26-28E to Rs29bn. The combined entity is trading at ~26x and 21x EV/EBITDA on FY27E and FY28E (adjusted for minority stake and rental) respectively. We maintain our ‘BUY’ rating with revised TP of Rs715/share, valuing 27x EV/EBITDA for the combined entity on FY28E.
