Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) – Analyst Meet Update – LRS 2026-30: Betting big on FINAI – Upgrade to ‘Accumulate’
Published on 08 Dec 2025
BAF outlined its long-term strategic framework (LRS 2026-30). Key themes revolved around customer centricity, AI adoption and risk management. Company aims to grow disbursements 10x by launching new products and leverage technology as a catalyst to drive growth (100 mn loans/ 3.5- 4.5 bn web visitors/ 160-180 mn app downloads) and reduce operating cost (Opex to NIM ratio of 31% by FY30). It expects to maintain a resilient asset quality profile with GNPA/ NNPA below 1.2%/ 0.4% over the long-term. While BAF has lowered its FY26 growth guidance to ~23%, it is seeing strong traction in new verticals (Cars, Gold, MFI) and new customer addition. We expect AUM growth of 24%/ 23% in FY27E/ FY28E led by new product lines and higher cross-sell. We expect BAF to deliver an RoA/ RoE of 4.4%/ 21.4% by FY28E. Upgrade to ACCUMULATE with a TP of Rs 1,125 (4.6x Sep-27 P/ABV vs. 4.2x earlier) on improved long-term growth outlook and cost profile. Elevated credit cost remains a near-term drag.
