Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL IN) – Company Update – Long-term visibility strengthens – Accumulate
Published on 04 Feb 2026
Major projects remain on track, with revised completion timelines as follows: Kochi polypropylene plant by CY28, Bina refinery/petchem expansion by mid-CY28, and Andhra Pradesh (AP) refinery/petrochem project awaiting DFR finalization. Total cost for the AP project may be revised upward to Rs1,100–1,200bn from Rs960bn, due to rupee depreciation. The AP refinery will be housed under a separate entity, with BPCL exploring a strategic partnership, including discussions with foreign partners; Oil India has already signed a non-binding MoU for participation in the project. BPCL’s cumulative capex over the next 5 years is guided at Rs2,500–2,700bn. Annual capex is expected to be Rs200-250bn over the initial 2 years, ramping up to Rs500-600bn p.a. over the subsequent 3 years. Further, BPCL continues to source non-sanctioned Russian crude, in the absence of any formal communication from the ministry. Additionally, if given the opportunity to purchase Venezuelan crude, BPCL will first test its feasibility/combability with the pipelines and refinery. Subject to successful trials, the company may proceed with commercial sourcing, with expected discount of ~USD9/bbl to benchmark. We value the stock at 1.6x Dec’27E P/BV (previous: 1.5x) and maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating with revised TP of Rs406 (previous Rs381).
