Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA IN) – Q3FY26 Result Update – Weak Q3 on lower pricing and higher opex – Downgrade to ‘HOLD’
Published on 22 Jan 2026
DALBHARA’s planned capacity addition is progressing well, with the Umrangso clinker line commissioned and steady progress across Belgaum, Pune and Kadapa sites. However, the company continues to operate in a structurally competitive cement market, particularly in the East and South, where pricing turns volatile due to influx of capacities. Key things to watch out for are: 1) demand and pricing trends in its key markets, 2) pet coke inflation, 3) new project announcements to reach the 75mtpa target, and 4) timely execution. We tweak our FY27/28E EBITDA by -2%/+4% to incorporate lower incentives and higher volumes in FY28 and expect 23% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-28E. At CMP, the stock is trading at 11.6x/9.9x EV of FY27/FY28E EBITDA. Downgrade to ‘HOLD’ with revised TP of Rs2,302 (earlier ‘Accumulate’, TP Rs2,273) valuing at same 11x EV of Sep’27E EBITDA.
