Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) – Q3FY26 Result Update – India to anchor earnings, while Novelis rebuilds – HOLD
Published on 13 Feb 2026
We downgrade our rating to ‘Hold’ from ‘Accumulate’ with a revised TP of Rs907 (earlier Rs962) valuing Hindalco India biz at higher multiple of 6x EV of Sep’27E EBITDA (earlier 5.5x) on higher leverage arising from Oswego incident and potential risk of capex delays while higher LME aids India. Hindalco Industries (HNDL) delivered in-line Q3 cons operating performance, supported by strong India performance which offset drag from Novelis. Ally hedging and 1% rise in CoP has limited India EBITDA. While higher LME is supporting India, sharp rise in net debt to compensate for USD1.3-1.6b hit on Novelis FCF is erasing our TP.
