Jindal Stainless (JDSL IN) – Q2FY27 Result Update – Disruption led to market share loss; expect H2 recovery – BUY

Management expects performance to improve in H2FY27, with the ramp-up of downstream facilities key to achieving its revised FY27 volume growth guidance of 4-6%; it also raised EBITDA/t guidance to INR20-22k/t, reinforcing its focus on profitability over volumes. Several cold-rolling mills are already under commissioning, while the HAPL line is expected to begin commissioning by end-CY26 or early CY27, supporting the next leg of volume growth. Over the medium term, JDSL continues to target sales volumes of 3.5mt by FY29E, driven by downstream capacity additions, a richer product mix and the ramp-up of its 1.2mtpa Indonesian melt shop. However, the Maharashtra greenfield project DPR faces delays due to slower than expected movement on land acquisition, with mgmt. indicating that another one to two quarters may be needed. While this pushes out visibility on the next phase of large-scale expansion, we believe the ongoing downstream commissioning and Indonesia ramp-up provide meaningful growth levers, keeping JDSL’s medium-term growth story intact. Key monitorables remain: (a) Import intensity and volume growth for JDSL in H2FY27, (b) commissioning of HAPL line and (c) ADD outcome by end of CY26. We cut our FY28/29E estimates by 6%/2% and expect JDSL to deliver 12% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-29E. At CMP, the stock is trading at 8.1x/6.7x EV of FY28/29E EBITDA. Maintain ‘Buy’ with revised TP of INR829 (earlier INR867), valuing at same 9x EV of Sep’28E EBITDA.