Jindal Stainless (JDSL IN) – Q3FY26 Result Update – Robust domestic volume aids Q3; Spurt in FY28 – HOLD
Published on 23 Jan 2026
The ongoing expansion of 1.2mtpa SSMS at Indonesia and supporting downstream facility (Rs19.5bn capex) at Jajpur is on track as per the management, which would drive FY28 volume growth. With Jajpur HRAP expansion expected in H2FY27, we expect FY27 volume to be softer than FY26. However, the management is going to announce plans for further downstream investments by Q4 to outlay the 3-year volume growth plans. We believe JDSL would still deliver double-digit volume CAGR over FY25-28E aided by strong demand, Indonesia upstream and Jajpur downstream facilities, which would give spurt in FY28 volume. Things to watch out for: a) SS and nickel pricing spreads in the event of spike in nickel & ferro chrome prices, b) GoI action on QCO for SS imports, c) Jajpur expansion progress, and d) clarity over CBAM computation and demand scenario. We expect JDSL to deliver 17% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-28E. At CMP, the stock is trading at 9.6x/7.9x EV of FY27/FY28E EBITDA. Maintain ‘HOLD’ rating with TP of Rs784, valuing at 9x EV of Sep’27E EBITDA.
