Kajaria Ceramics (KJC IN) – Q3FY26 Result Update – Softness in demand leads flat volumes – BUY
Published on 30 Jan 2026
We tweak our earnings estimates for FY27/FY28 and upgraded our rating to ‘BUY’ from ‘HOLD’ due to recent correction in stock prices. We value the stock at 28x Mar’28E EPS to arrive at revised TP of Rs1,056. The management has refrained from providing FY26 revenue guidance due to near-term demand softness, however guided for EBITDA margins in the range of 17–18% for FY26. In Q3 FY26, volumes were flat due to weak demand and dealer de-stocking, amid dealer churn, network rationalisation, SKU liquidation and higher cross-selling. Management noted Jan’26 trends have turned positive and expects growth momentum to pick up ahead. KJC expects Industry tile exports to reach Rs 160bn in FY26 (9MFY26 it was Rs120bn). We have considered 5.0% CAGR in tiles volume over FY25-28E with cons. EBITDA margin of 17.0% in FY28. We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 6.5%/15.0%/20.6% over FY25-28E. Upgrade to ‘BUY.’
