Metals & Mining – Oct-Dec’25 Earnings Preview – Mixed bag – strong LME, weak HRC
Published on 09 Jan 2026
Despite global economic uncertainties, weak DXY, rate cuts and supply disruptions have led to sharp jump in base metal prices. As marginal cost of production for ally remains at USD2400-2500/t, the sustenance of this DXY led rally is debatable. We expect non-ferrous companies to benefit from higher LME in near term; however, valuations are full. We expect strong domestic steel demand, protected steel prices and ramp up of recently commissioned capacities to aid steel sector EBITDA growth. Key monitorables to watch out for: 1) domestic demand momentum to absorb near term supply, 2) recovery in global economy, and 3) China stimulus. Our top picks are TATA and JINDALST.
