Mold-tek Packaging (MTEP IN) – Q2FY26 Result Update – Near term outlook muted, Paints to drive growth – Accumulate
Published on 29 Oct 2025
We cut our FY27/FY28 estimate by 6.4%/6.8% led by 1) Subdued near term outlook for paints with muted order flow from all players except ABG group 2) Persistent underperformance in lubes business & 3) lowered EBITDA/KG guidance of Rs40-41 for FY26 from earlier guidance of Rs42-43 led by higher competitive intensity in F&F & lower utilization. MTEP numbers were miss on our estimate as persistent rain drag the performance. EBIDTA/kg came in at Rs39 vs Rs41/Rs35.8 in 1Q26/2Q25 as lower utilization led to subdued volume growth of 6.8%.
However, we believe LT drivers for MTEP remain intact given 1) rising business from leading paint and FMCG companies and scale up in pharma business. 2) Consistent addition of new customer with 5+ addition in Q2. & 3) Capacity enhancements at Cheyyar and Panipat with growing demand from ABG will enable increase in capacity utilization from Q4FY26 onwards. We estimate EBIDTA/kg to increase to Rs43.7/46.2 over FY27 and FY28. We estimate a 15.8% Sales CAGR & 30.6% EPS CAGR over FY26-FY28. We assign a PE of 23.5x on Sep-27 valuing the company at Rs782 (Rs821 earlier). Retain ‘Accumulate’.
