NTPC (NTPC IN) – Company Update – Stable performance with growth visibility intact – BUY
Published on 01 Feb 2026
NTPC delivered steady Q3FY26 performance, with standalone adjusted PAT up ~1% YoY and 9MFY26 PAT up ~4% YoY, supported by better JV dividends. Muted power demand across the country resulted in a ~4% YoY decline in NTPC’s generation in Q3FY26. Going ahead, the evolving El Niño conditions warrant monitoring, as this could potentially support higher power demand in FY27E. For NTPC, medium-term growth visibility is supported by a strong capacity pipeline of ~33GW under construction, spanning thermal, hydro and renewables, logging 10% CAGR over FY26-28E (Exhibit 3). As part of its FY26E addition target of 11GW, NTPC has added 5.7GW so far. Nuclear capex remains at an evolving stage, with NTPC indicating plans to contribute ~30% toward the Ministry of Power’s target of achieving 100 GW of nuclear capacity in India by 2047. Overall, NTPC’s regulated cost-plus framework ensures stable RoE, predictable cash flows, and low earnings volatility, making it a low-risk compounder, rather than a high-growth stock. We have ‘BUY’ rating with FY28E TP of Rs423/share, based on SoTP valuation (Exhibit 4), and stock offers ~2.5% dividend yield.
