Oil & Gas – Oct-Dec’25 Earnings Preview – Subdued quarter expected
Published on 07 Jan 2026
Sector performance is expected to remain largely muted on a QoQ basis in Q3FY26. Resilient crack spreads supported by a lower Brent crude price environment are expected to benefit OMC’s. However, rupee depreciation is expected to exert pressure on marketing margins. We estimate aggregate standalone EBITDA for OMCs at Rs312.6bn, reflecting an increase of 51.3% YoY, and flat QoQ. In contrast, upstream companies are expected to face earnings pressure, as the decline in crude oil prices is likely to weigh on realizations. ONGC and Oil India are expected to report a QoQ decline in EBITDA to Rs174.6bn, down 8.2% QoQ. RIL is expected to report a 5.3% YoY increase in consolidated EBITDA, led primarily by improved refining margins in its standalone segment. Overall, sector performance is expected to remain largely muted on a QoQ basis in Q3FY26 with 3.5% QoQ rise in revenues. We estimate aggregate EBITDA to remain flat QoQ at Rs1,042bn in Q3FY26, while aggregate PAT is expected to decline by 4.3% QoQ.
