Oil & Gas – Sector Update – Iran’s strategic lever – Strait of Hormuz
Published on 15 Mar 2026
We hosted a webinar with oil market expert Mukesh Sahdev, founder, CEO, Chief Oil Analyst of Xanalyst, Ex-Rystad and Ex-Shell, having more than 30 years of experience across the oil value chain. The discussion focused on the ongoing crisis in the global oil and gas market. The disruption is expected to create an estimated ~10 mb/d supply gap by April 1, 2026, with the shortage more pronounced in refined products than crude oil. Several major Middle Eastern refineries have reportedly been damaged, impacting roughly ~25% of regional refining capacity, which is tightening global product availability. Inventory buffers across Asia remain uneven. Alternative supply sources remain constrained. Increased flows through the Red Sea and Suez Canal face logistical and security risks. Upcoming US-China negotiations in Paris and expected Trump-Xi summit are viewed as a critical catalyst for potential de-escalation, while reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could still face delays due to sea mines, vessel congestion and damaged infrastructure. Even after hostilities ease, the recovery of refining capacity and product export flows is expected to take significantly longer than crude supply normalization.
