TCI Express (TCIEXP IN) – Q3FY26 Result Update – Volumes show some spark – BUY
Published on 04 Feb 2026
TCIEXP IN reported a weak performance in 3QFY26, with EBITDA margin at 10.3% (PLe 11.3%). However, volumes grew 5.4% YoY to 255,000 MT, registering a growth after 8 quarters, indicating early signs of a turnaround. This growth was driven by recovery in surface express, strong customer additions, higher wallet share from existing enterprise accounts, and improved freight movement led by domestic consumption and festive demand. Incremental traction from rail express, air express, C2C and e-commerce services, alongside growth in automotive, pharma, EV, solar and electronics segments, also supported the volume uptick. Given these early signs of a demand-led recovery and improving business mix, we expect volumes to grow at a 6% CAGR over FY25–FY28E, while realization is likely to remain flat over the same period. We broadly retain our estimates and expect sales/PAT CAGR of 7%/18%, respectively over FY25–FY28E. We maintain BUY with a TP of Rs694 (19x FY28 EPS; multiple has been realigned as we roll forward).
