Kajaria Ceramics (KJC IN) – Management Meet Update – Market share gains amid industry disruption – BUY
Published on 30 Mar 2026
We interacted with the management of Kajaria Ceramics (KJC), wherein they highlighted a gradual recovery in Q4FY26 led by 7–8% volume growth, supported by channel destocking and normalization of operations. Supply disruptions in Morbi (gas issues and shutdowns) have created a market share gain opportunity, aided by low dealer inventory and continued constraints in the region. Gas price volatility remains a key monitorable, especially for subsidiaries and outsourced volumes linked to Morbi, though standalone operations remain largely unaffected. Margins are guided to remain stable at 17–18%, supported by pricing actions and cost-effective factors taken by company. We estimate revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 8.0% / 8.0% / 13.6% with over FY26-28E. We have considered ~5.0% CAGR over FY26–28E, factoring in a subdued demand environment and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. We upward revised our earnings estimate by 2.9% for FY27E, while maintained for FY28E. Maintain ‘BUY’ rating with revised DCF-based TP of Rs1,147 (Rs1,056 earlier).
