Trump Signals Positive US-Iran Talks: Which Sectors Could Be Affected?

Mumbai | 4 May 2026 

Oil prices remain above $100 a barrel as the US-Iran conflict continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, even as US President Donald Trump signalled fresh efforts to ease the shipping crisis. 

Brent crude fell 64 cents, or 0.59%, to $107.53 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate dropped 84 cents, or 0.82%, to $101.10 a barrel. 

What Did Trump Say About the Strait of Hormuz? 

Trump announced on Sunday that the US would begin efforts to guide stranded ships safely out of the restricted waterway. The announcement offered brief relief to oil markets, though prices held well above $100 with no formal peace agreement in place. 

Negotiations between the US and Iran continued over the weekend. Trump has made a nuclear deal with Tehran a priority. Iran has proposed setting aside nuclear issues until after the war ends and both sides agree to lift opposing blockades on Gulf shipping. Iran submitted a 14-point proposal to the US via Pakistan on Friday, with Iranian press reports describing it as a comprehensive peace plan to be implemented within 30 days. 

Why Does the Strait of Hormuz Matter for Oil? 

The Strait of Hormuz is the transit point for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies. Both sides have imposed parallel blockades on the strait as a means of applying economic pressure, creating a severe disruption to global energy flows. 

OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it will raise output targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June across seven member nations, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. However, as long as the strait remains disrupted, the additional volume is unlikely to reach markets. 

What Does the Supply Disruption Mean for Refined Products? 

According to Mukesh Sahdev, oil market expert and founder of Xanalyst, the disruption is expected to create an estimated supply gap of approximately 10 million barrels per day by 1 April 2026. Sahdev noted the shortage is more pronounced in refined products than in crude oil. 

Several major Middle Eastern refineries have reportedly sustained damage, affecting roughly 25% of regional refining capacity. This is tightening global product availability at a time when inventory buffers across Asia remain uneven. 

What Are the Key Risks to Watch? 

Sahdev identified several factors that could prolong the disruption even after a ceasefire: 

• Alternative supply sources remain constrained 

• Increased flows through the Red Sea and Suez Canal face logistical and security risks 

• Reopening the strait could face further delays due to sea mines, vessel congestion, and damaged infrastructure 

• Recovery of refining capacity and product export flows is expected to take significantly longer than crude supply normalisation 

Upcoming US-China negotiations and an expected Trump-Xi summit are viewed as a potential catalyst for de-escalation. 

Outlook 

Oil prices are likely to remain supported above $100 as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted and no formal peace deal is reached. The refined products market faces a more severe supply crunch than crude, with recovery timelines dependent on both geopolitical resolution and physical infrastructure repair. 

Stay updated on Indian equity and commodity markets. Read more market news on PL Capital → 

Disclaimer: Investments in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.

This is a knowledge-sharing initiative by PL Capital. The information provided is only for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice & has no influence on the investment/trading decisions of any investors.

For detailed disclaimers/disclosure and Mandatory terms and conditions please visit our website https://www.plindia.com/regulatory-content/