Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL IN) – Q4FY26 Result Update – EBITDA beat; Crude requirement secured until Jul’26 – ACCUMULATE
Published on 20 May 2026
Refining throughput stood at 10.4mmt, broadly in line with our estimate (PLe: 10.5mmt), remaining flat QoQ and declining 1.7% YoY. Reported GRM (pre-SAED implementation on 27th Mar’26) improved sharply to USD18.0/bbl in Q4FY26 from USD13.2/bbl in Q3FY26, supported by stronger crack spreads amid West Asia war. However, implied GMM softened to INR5.6/ltr from INR6.2/ltr in Q3FY26 primarily due to higher crude oil prices in Mar’26. EBITDA came in at INR100.6bn, (PLe: INR61.4bn; BBGe: INR77.9bn) (+29.6% YoY, -13.8% QoQ) despite a forex loss of INR9.4bn, driven by stronger refining performance. Reported PAT declined to INR31.9bn (-57.7% QoQ; flat YoY) due to higher interest costs and an impairment charge of INR43.5bn related to BPRL. Adjusted PAT stood at INR64.5bn increasing 41.7% YoY while declining 14.5% QoQ. On crude sourcing, BPCL increased its Russian crude mix to >40% as of May’26 (Q3FY26: 25%; Q4FY26: 31%) with all crude requirements secured through Jul’26. We revise our assumptions and now build in GRM of USD7.1/6.8/bbl (earlier: USD7.7/7.5/bbl) and GMM of INR2.4/4.5/ltr (earlier: INR5.3/5.0/ltr) for FY27E/FY28E, reflecting a weaker near-term outlook. We maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating and revise our target price to INR325 (earlier: INR332), based on 1.3x FY28E P/BV.
