JSW Steel (JSTL IN) – Management Meet Update – Superior execution & VASP to drive growth – HOLD
Published on 12 Sep 2025
Several countries have witnessed a boom in steel demand post reaching 100kg per capita consumption mark, and India is expected to follow suit in the next few years. We expect JSTL to be a prime beneficiary of this demand acceleration as it has outlined several capacity expansion avenues over FY25-31E, to reach 50mtpa mark. Although steel prices declined sharply post May’25, expected demand uptick post monsoon, safeguard extension and China’s policies would improve situation. We cut FY26/27E EBITDA by ~4%/5% adjusting for near-term pricing weakness and introduce FY28 EBITDA estimates. We expect JSTL to deliver strong 26% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-28E on a low base. At CMP, the stock is trading at 8x/7.4x EV on FY27/28E EBITDA. We maintain ‘HOLD’ rating with revised TP of Rs1,064 (Rs1,068 earlier), valuing the company at 7.5x EV/Sep’27E EBITDA (rolling forward from Mar’27).
