Power – Jan-Mar’26 Earnings Preview – Mixed performance amid muted power demand
Published on 08 Apr 2026
Power sector performance in Q4FY26 is expected to be mixed, with underlying demand showing limited traction. Peak demand grew by ~2% YoY to 245GW; energy consumption also rose by ~2% YoY to 425BU. Power prices continued to moderate, with DAM prices declining ~12% YoY to INR3.9/kWh, led by higher renewable generation and comfortable coal availability, keeping supply conditions benign. Operational performance remained mixed across players—NTPC reported ~4% YoY decline in generation with PLF moderating to 65% (-400 bps YoY), while Tata Power saw a sharp decline in generation due to disruptions at Mundra. CESC reported stable performance with ~3% YoY growth in generation. The coverage universe is expected to report modest PAT growth of ~2% YoY , with divergence across companies. CESC, NTPC, IEX and Power Grid saw PAT growth, while Adani Energy Solutions, Coal India and Tata Power could see a decline. We retain top picks: PGCIL, NTPC and CESC. Skymet’s latest forecast indicates a below-normal monsoon for FY27 in India, which could support higher power demand in the coming quarters, given that around 40–45% of power consumption (agriculture & residential segments) is weather-sensitive.
