Lupin (LPC IN) – Q4FY26 Result Update – Sustainability of US sales will be key – ACCUMULATE
Published on 11 May 2026
Lupin’s (LPC) Q4FY26 EBITDA stood at INR 21.7bn (up 68% YoY); 13% beat to our estimates on the back of healthy US sales supported by niche launches like gTolvaptan, strong flu season and other launches. LPC saw remarkable turnaround in profitability over last 3 years with ~5x jump in EBITDA over FY23-26 aided by better product mix, continued niche launches in the US, clearance from USFDA for facilities, domestic formulations regaining momentum and cost optimization measures. Currently 3 products (gTolvaptan, gMirabegron and gSpiriva) contribute ~50% to total EPS. These products will face competition from H2FY27/FY28. Though Lupin has some niche pipeline including 505 (b) (2) opportunity and biosimilars to compensate we expect Lupin PAT to decline over FY26-28E. Our FY27E and FY27E EPS broadly remain unchanged. We maintain our “Accumulate” rating with revised TP of INR 2,500 (24x FY28E EPS).
