Greenpanel Industries (GREENP IN) – Q4FY26 Result Update – Input Cost Inflation Impacts Margins – BUY
Published on 18 May 2026
GREENP MDF vol grew by 27.8% YoY to 130KCBM, driven by healthy domestic volume (grew by 29.5% YoY). MDF margins stood at 9.2%, due to significant increase in chemical prices which accounts ~40% RM. The company reported Export Promotion Capital Goods (EPCG) scheme incentives of Rs62mn in Q4FY26 supported MDF margin and still around Rs ~260mn is yet to accrued. In Q4FY26, timber prices remained broadly stable, while chemical prices increased ~40–45% YoY due to supply-chain disruptions and elevated freight costs linked to the Middle East conflict. To offset the rise in raw material costs, the company implemented cumulative price hikes of ~15%. While management refrained from providing formal FY27 revenue and margin guidance amid geopolitical uncertainties and volatile input costs, it expects domestic MDF industry demand to grow in the mid-teen to high-teen range, with the company likely to grow in line with or ahead of the industry. We cut our earnings estimate by 15.1%/10.2% for FY27/28E and Maintained ‘BUY’ rating revised TP of Rs 332 (Rs 370 earlier), based on 20x Mar’28 earnings. We estimate revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 15.2%/74.6%/219.6% over FY26-28E with MDF volume CAGR of 19.3%.
