Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL IN) – Q4FY26 Result Update – CNG vol resilient; Price hike ease some margin pressure – Accumulate
Published on 08 May 2026
MAHGL reported total volumes of 4.7mmscmd in Q4FY26, up 1.1%/6.1% QOQ/YoY (PLe: 4.3mmscmd), driven by healthy CNG volume growth of 2.0%/7.2% QoQ/YoY, while PNG-D volumes remained flat QoQ and increased 2.3% YoY. Industrial/commercial (I/C) volumes declined 2.2% QoQ but increased 4.9% YoY. Adj. EBITDA (adjusted for trade discount reversal) declined 26.1%/21.5% QoQ/YoY to INR2.6bn (PLe: INR3.1bn; BBGe: INR3.0bn) due to a sharp rise in raw material costs (4.6%/15.8% QoQ/YoY). Consequently, Adj. EBITDA/scm declined to INR6.2/scm in Q4FY26 vs INR8.3/scm in Q3FY26 (PLe: INR8.0/scm). Higher depreciation and lower other income further impacted profitability, with Adj. PAT declining 34.7%/33.0% QoQ/YoY to INR1.3bn (PLe: INR1.7bn; BBGe: INR1.6bn). For FY26, EBITDA and PAT declined 11.2% YoY and 23.3% YoY to INR13.4bn and INR7.6bn, respectively. While recent policy measures for CGD’s are expected to improve the medium-term volume growth trajectory, ongoing disruptions in West Asia have led us to revise our FY27/FY28E volume growth estimates to 8.6%/10.6% YoY (vs earlier 10.0%/10.0%). In addition, we revise the Adj. EBITDA/scm expectation to INR8.0/INR8.6 (vs INR9.0 each) in FY27/FY28E. We value the company at 12x FY28E EPS (earlier 10x) and maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating with a revised TP of INR1,302 (earlier INR1,114)
