Greenpanel Industries (GREENP IN) – Management Meet Update – GREENP Eyes Utilisation & Market Share Recovery – BUY

We attended GREENP management meet, where management outlined its strategy to regain market share, improve utilisation levels and strengthen operational efficiencies across the MDF business. Management remains structurally positive on the Indian MDF industry, highlighting strong long-term demand potential driven by increasing substitution of plywood, particle board across furniture and interior applications. The company expects domestic MDF demand to grow at ~15% CAGR, while near-term supply additions are likely to remain gradual due to imported machinery dependence, elevated freight costs and supply-chain disruptions. Management also highlighted that the company has initiated multiple operational and organisational changes over the last 8–9 months, including centralisation of procurement and commercial functions, improved sourcing strategies, stronger dealer engagement and enhanced sales execution. GREENP believes improving utilisation, increasing the share of value-added products, strengthening retail mix and driving operating efficiencies can support sustainable medium-term EBITDA margins of 15%+, while industry consolidation is expected to favour organised players over the long term. We maintained our FY27/FY28 earnings estimated. Maintained ‘BUY’ rating with TP of Rs 332, based on 20x Mar’28 earnings. We estimate revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 20.3%/74.6%/219.6% over FY26-28E with MDF volume CAGR of 19.3%.