Metals & Mining – Sector Update – Supply shock to extend into CY27
Published on 13 May 2026
Alumina markets continue to remain oversupplied, and pricing is expected to remain subdued. Chinese smelters are expected to deliver strong financial performance in CY26 on account of weak alumina prices and higher LME. Any incremental exports from China can also put incremental pressure, although China has capacity and bauxite limitations. We are modelling metal prices of $3,300/$3,232 for FY27/28E EBITDA estimates in our assumptions. We maintain our Accumulate/Hold rating on HNDL/NACL, respectively, and await a better entry point. Every $100 increase in LME upgrades our HNDL/NACL EBITDA by ~4/5%, respectively.
