Manthan – Oil & Gas – Bald eagle strikes the colourful Icterus
Published on 05 Jan 2026
Will the recent events be a bane for the development of its oil reserves? It is hard to say. The next few days would be interesting to watch out for.
In the meantime, what is sure is that there is no Elder Wand of Harry Potter, the use of which is going to raise Venezuelan oil production immediately. Even for the first traces of this to appear, it would take atleast 3-6 months. In the short-term, the risk premium is expected to rise with global uncertainties and there may be minor spike as well depending upon how Russia and China respond to this. With Brent at ~USD60/bbl, we place our bets on upstream companies ONGC and Oil India. The OMCs are set to retain their profitability with low oil prices. However, the recent excise hike in cigerrattes also signals towards a probable rise in excise duty for petrol and diesel, with OMCs expected to absorb like in April 2025 and makes us wary, especially at current rich valuations.
