NTPC (NTPC IN) – Q2FY27 Result Update – Healthy 1H, 10% capacity CAGR over FY26-29E – BUY
Published on 01 Nov 2026
NTPC’s standalone adjusted PAT increased 18% YoY to INR 53bn, ~7% above estimates, while consolidated PAT grew 26% YoY. The standalone beat was driven by lower disincentives (INR 3bn), improved PAF of 94% (+1,000bps YoY), higher generation-linked incentives and a favourable generation mix. Overall generation grew 11% YoY to 92 BU. NTPC Green revised its FY27E capacity addition guidance to 6.5GW from 8GW, still above street expectations of 5–5.5GW. NTPC Group commissioned 2.4GW in 1HFY27 and targets 8GW for FY27E. Group capacity additions are targeted at 8GW/9.6GW/10.9GW in FY27E/FY28E/FY29E, implying 10% CAGR over FY26–29E, largely driven by NTPC Green. To mitigate curtailment (impacting 20%+ of NGEL EBITDA in 1HFY27), the group plans ~47GWh of BESS capacity (5GWh at thermal sites and 42GWh through NGEL), with 1.3GWh under execution. Under-construction capacity increased to 37GW (vs. 35.7GW QoQ). NTPC also plans 4.8GW of coal equipment awards from Q1FY28, with feasibility studies underway for another 3–4GW. The stock trades at 1.5x/1.2x 1HFY29E standalone/consolidated BV, with standalone EPS CAGR of 9% over FY26–29E. We revise FY27/28E EPS estimates upwards by 2%/3% on higher incentives and maintain BUY with a SoTP-based 1HFY29E TP of INR 421/share, offering ~3% dividend yield support (FY27E DPS: INR 10).
