Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL IN) – Q2FY27 Result Update – Strong refining performance boosted by inventory gains – ACCUMULATE
Published on 01 Nov 2026
IOCL reported a significantly higher than expected standalone EBITDA of INR306.4bn (PLe: INR90.8bn; BBGe: INR115.0bn), driven by strong refining performance and refining/marketing inventory gains of INR69.0bn. Reported GRM (net of SAED) improved to USD18.5/bbl in Q2FY27 vs USD15.6/bbl in Q1FY27, while refining throughput increased 2.8% YoY to 18.1mmt. Consequently, PAT came in above estimates at INR216.3bn (PLe: INR34.9bn; BBGe: INR62.7bn), supported by higher other income. Major refining expansion projects at Panipat, Barauni and Gujarat are targeted for completion in FY27. Factoring in the strong 1HFY27 performance, we estimate FY27E reported GRM at USD17.5/bbl. For FY28E/FY29E, we estimate GRM of USD7.5/7.3/bbl, respectively, as the current strong cracks environment normalizes. Implied GMM is estimated at INR4.7/4.6/ltr for FY28E/FY29E, respectively. We maintain 'Accumulate' with a revised TP of INR140 (earlier: INR138), based on 0.7x (unchanged) Sep'28E P/BV.
