Greenpanel Industries (GREENP IN) – Q2FY27 Result Update – Exports drags MDF Volume Growth – BUY
Published on 03 Nov 2026
GREENP’s overall MDF volumes declined by 3.1% YoY in Q2FY27, primarily due to subdued OEM demand following the withdrawal of earlier pricing benefits after Q1 price hikes, prompting customers to explore alternative imports; however, management expects a gradual recovery from Q3FY27. Export volumes also remained subdued amid geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East. Despite near-term challenges, GREENP is targeting mid-teen MDF volume growth in FY27. Management expects chemical cost inflation to moderate in H2FY27, although the outlook remains dependent on crude prices and geopolitical developments. Improving capacity utilization, operating leverage and cost efficiencies are expected to support margin recovery. We cut our earnings estimate by 10.8%/11.8% for FY28/29E and Maintained ‘BUY’ rating revised TP of INR 239 (INR 271 earlier), based on 20x Sep’28 earnings. We estimate revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 11.1%/36.6%/100.4% over FY26-29E with MDF volume CAGR of 10.2%.
