Coal India (COAL IN) – Q4FY26 Result Update – Good quarter and now eyeing volume uptick – Upgrade to ‘ACCUMULATE’
Published on 29 Apr 2026
Coal India (COAL) reported EBITDA (ex-OBR) of INR123bn, up 8% YoY and marginally ahead of our and consensus estimates, driven by cost efficiencies and a higher share of e-auction sales. Following the results, we raise our FY27/28E EBITDA estimates by ~2%, factoring in stronger e-auction realizations. We now value the stock at 5.5x FY28E EV/EBITDA (vs. 5x earlier), in line with its 10-year historical average, and upgrade our rating to ‘Accumulate’ from ‘HOLD’, with a revised TP of INR515 (earlier INR436). For FY26, the company declared a dividend of INR26.55/share (53% payout; ~6% yield). We model modest volume growth of 2/3% YoY with EBITDA (ex-OBR) growth of 16%/7% YoY for over FY27/28E. COAL remains well positioned to benefit from sustained strength in power demand, with ~80% of volumes linked to coal-based power generation.
