Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL IN) – Q4FY26 Result Update – Strong Q4 beat; Q1FY27 to remain challenging – ACCUMULATE
Published on 20 May 2026
Refining throughput increased marginally to 19.7mmt from 19.4mmt QoQ, while domestic sales volumes grew 6.0% YoY to 23.3mmt. Management did not disclose Q4FY26 and FY26 GRMs due to ongoing volatility arising from West Asia disruptions. Standalone EBITDA improved sharply to INR226.1bn, significantly ahead of estimates (PLe: INR161.4bn; BBGe: INR146.5bn), compared with INR212.9bn in Q3FY26 and INR137.1bn in Q4FY25. Standalone PAT also rose sharply to INR113.8bn (PLe: INR86.4bn; BBGe: INR85.4bn) vs INR121.3bn in Q3FY26 and INR72.6bn in Q4FY25. Management guided FY27 capex at INR327bn, with ~50% allocated toward refining & pipeline projects. Planned refinery shutdowns in FY27 are expected to limit throughput to ~75mmtpa. Price hikes of INR3.9/ltr implemented in May’26 provide some relief; however, they remain insufficient to fully offset the under-recoveries in MS/HSD, suggesting a possibility of further price hikes if disruptions in West Asia persist. Given the current weakness, we revise our valuation multiple to 0.8x FY28E (from 0.9x) and reiterate “Accumulate” rating, with a revised target price of INR145 (earlier INR163).
